Committee on Appropriations A/V — 2017

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Jim Terwilliger, Bureau of Finance & Management00:02:20
South Dakota and United State Economic Outlook - Document No. 100:04:30
IHC Economics Most Recent US Forecast00:04:35
Five Economic Indicators: Real GDP, Nonfarm Employment, CPI, Housing Starts and Unemployment Rate00:04:38
GDP is the most comprenhensive measure of the economy and is projected to grow in FY17 and FY1800:06:20
Nonfarm Employment is expected to slow in 2017 and 201800:07:00
CPI, a measure of inflation, is expected to pick up from FY1600:07:11
Housing Starts will continue to grow at a slow rate00:08:15
Unemployment Rate has decreased over the past few years00:08:45
Monthly Nonfarm Employment Levels: SD growing at faster rate than the US00:09:10
Nonfarm Employment Growth (monthly Y/Y% change)00:11:05
Growth Rates of Nonfarm Income (quarterly Y/Y% change)00:12:20
Unemployment Rates Trending Lower - South Dakota is at 2.8%, one of the lowest in the nation00:13:47
SD Farm Income Still Declining - Leading to Lower Capital Spending00:14:12
Commodity prices have been declining since 2013 00:14:55
Most Recent South Dakota Economic Forecast00:16:10
SD Nonfarm Employment: projecting a growth of 1.1% in FY17 and 1.0% in FY1800:16:55
SD Nonfarm Income: projecting a growth rate of 3.9% in FY17 and 4.0% in FY1800:17:26
Housing Starts are at 4,150 in both FY17 and FY1800:17:54
Unemployment Rate will remain relatively low in FY17 and FY18 at 2.8%00:18:16
Expect moderate economic growth in South Dakota in FY17 and FY1800:18:30
Senator Partridge question on retail sales00:19:22
Senator Peters question on housing starts00:20:20
Senator Sutton question on farm economy and exports to foreign countries00:21:03
Senator Cronin question on possible recession00:23:20
Representative Peterson question of farm income adjusted for inflation00:25:10
Senator Patridge question on housing starts 00:25:35
Senator Nesiba question on farm income/price of corn00:27:20
Senator Cronin comments on price of corn and the effect on the economy00:28:25
Comparison of FY17 and FY18 General Fund Revenues00:30:23
Bureau of Finance & Management Revenue Forecasts - Document No. 200:30:25
Comparison of FY2017 and FY2018 General Fund Revenues00:30:35
Sale and Use Tax00:31:00
The average annual increase in net collections for Sales Tax, between FY08 and FY16, was 3.68%00:31:30
Estimated FY17 Total Sales Tax Receipts is $951,806,49800:37:10
Estimated FY18 Total Sales Tax Receipts is $999,509,03600:37:12
Growth rate for FY17 is estimated at 10.56% and 5.01% for FY1800:37:25
Net collections from Sales & Use Tax accounts for 62% of the ongoing General Fund Revenue00:39:20
Senator Partridge question on audit collections00:39:30
Lottery - receipts account for approximately 7.2% of ongoing General Fund Revenues00:41:00
Estimated FY17 Receipts is $112,074,206, a growth of 1.83% and for FY18 $115,318,879, a growth of 2.90%00:42:15
Contractor's Excise Tax - a 2% tax imposed on the gross receipts of all prime contractors00:42:20
Estimated FY17 Receipts is $109,161,658, a growth rate of 7.55% and in FY18 $110,504,293 at a 1.23% growth rate00:43:00
Insurance Company Tax - a 2.5% tax of premiums on policies00:43:30
Estimated FY17 Receipts is $90,677,049, a growth rate of 6.94% and in FY18 $93,563,950, a 3.18% increase00:43:57
Unclaimed Property Receipts account for approximately 3.2% of ongoing general fund revenues00:44:25
Estimated FY17 Receipts is $48,834,196 and for FY18 is $51,461,196, a 5.38% growth00:44:45
Governor's Revised FY17 vs. February Revised FY17 - $1,547,771,215, a decrease of $24,298,90100:45:58
Governor's Recommended FY18 vs. February Revised FY18 - $1,601,240,591, a decrease of $16,620,25100:46:52
Jeff Mehlhaff, Legislative Research Council - Document Nos. 3 & 400:49:15
Explanation of different models used for determining projected revenue00:49:20
Estimated dollar change for FY17 is a decrease of $27,506,402 or -1.72%00:53:03
FY17 General Fund Revenues (February 13, 2017) - (Document 3)00:53:20
LRC Revised FY17 Revenue is projected to be $1,544,563,71400:53:40
Senator Peters question on how the forecast model is weighted00:53:54
Senator Sutton question on how accurate this model would be compared to previous years00:54:38
Senator Cronin question on formula00:56:45
LRC General Fund Revenue Estimate for FY18 is $1,576,858,862, a decrease of $41,002,180 or -2.53%00:58:40
Senator Cronin question on the large difference in estimates00:59:30
Senator Cronin question on justification for lower growth in Sales & Use Tax01:01:30
Senator Patridge question on Mineral Severance taxes01:02:50
Senator Patridge question on Interest Income01:04:03
Senator Nesiba question on difference in forecasting01:04:47
Representative Lake question on new model vs. old model01:06:39
Representative Bartels question on Holt-Winters Filtering graph01:07:49
Senator Peters question on how the Holt-Winters Filtering graph compares to the old model01:08:45
Senator Cronin question on old model estimates for FY1801:13:40
Representative Howard question on why use a new model01:15:15
Representative Ahlers question/comments on estimation process between BFM and LRC01:15:50
Jim Terwilliger responded regarding the process01:17:50
Senator Patridge question on sales tax for FY1801:19:00
Representative Howard question on new model and its accuracies01:19:40
Representative Bartels question on new model for FY17 revisions01:20:36
Senator Tidemann question on variance of the FY18 estimates 01:21:30
Representative Peterson question on BFM Sales Tax estimates01:22:40
Representative Anderson comments on history of estimations01:25:05